房价连涨三个月后,石家庄拟上调首套房贷利率下限

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房价连涨三个月后,石家庄拟上调首套房贷利率下限

在全国房贷利率“一片降声”的情况下,这一省会城市即将上调。

3月19日,一份《关于调整石家庄市差别化住房信贷政策的通知》的文件在业内流传,显示自2024年4月份起,石家庄市恢复执行全国统一的首套住房商业性个人住房贷款利率下限(LPR-20),二套住房商业性个人住房贷款利率政策下限按现行规定执行。

文件显示,该通知由河北省市场利率定价自律委员会发布,该机构接受中国人民银行石家庄中心支行的指导和监督管理,记者拨打中国人民银行石家庄中心支行电话,从工作人员处获悉,通知为真,首套房商贷利率下限将于4月起调整。

据中国人民银行河北省分行此前公告,2022年10月13日至今,石家庄执行的利率下限水平为LPR-50BP。如果3月20日即将发布的最新期LPR报价不变,那么从下个月起,石家庄首套房商贷利率下限将由3.45%调整为3.75%。

为何调整?

文件显示,石家庄房贷利率下限调整的原因是,2023年12月~2024年2月,当地新建商品住宅销售价格同环比连涨3个月,因此4月起恢复全国统一的首套房商贷利率下限。

实际上,这一调整有明确的政策依据,即房贷利率调整和房价挂钩。

早在2022年9月29日,中国人民银行、中国银行保险监督管理委员会曾发布《关于阶段性调整差别化住房信贷政策的通知》,对当年6~8月新建商品住宅销售价格环比、同比均连续下降的城市,阶段性自主决定维持、下调或取消首套房商贷利率下限。

当时,首套房商贷利率的下限为,不低于相应期限贷款市场报价利率减20个基点。该通知发布后,石家庄首套房商贷利率下限便出现调整。2022年10月13日至今,石家庄执行的利率下限水平为LPR-50BP,低于全国首套房商贷利率下限30个基点。

2022年12月30日,中国人民银行、中国银行保险监督管理委员会再发布《关于建立新发放首套住房个人住房贷款利率政策动态调整长效机制的通知》,表示自2022年第四季度起,各城市政府可于每季度末月,对当地新建商品住宅销售价格变化情况进行动态评估。

通知表示,评估期内新建商品住宅销售价格环比和同比连续3个月均下降的城市,地方政府可按照因城施策原则,自主决定自下一个季度起,阶段性维持、下调或取消当地首套住房商业性个人住房贷款利率下限。

而对于阶段性下调或取消首套住房商业性个人住房贷款利率下限的城市,如果后续评估期内新建商品住宅销售价格环比和同比连续3个月均上涨,应自下一个季度起,恢复执行全国统一的首套住房商业性个人住房贷款利率下限。

再看石家庄的房价情况,2023年12月,石家庄新房价格环比上涨0.3%,同比上涨1%;2024年1月,新房环比上涨0.1%,同比上涨0.9%;2024年2月,新房环比上涨0.1%,同比上涨0.8%,确实实现“三连涨”,因此按规定恢复执行全国统一利率下限。

此番调整后,石家庄房贷利率将有何变化?

中指研究院市场研究总监陈文静告诉第一财经,当前,石家庄新房首套商贷利率下限仍执行3.45%(LPR-50BP),若本月五年期LPR不调整,4月起首套商贷利率下限即将调整至3.75%(LPR-20BP),即上调30个基点,首套利率3.45%仍保持至月末。

利率下降仍是主流

石家庄上述通知后续执行、实际效果将如何,还有待观察。

中国工商银行石家庄某支行个贷工作人员称,今天听到了房贷利率调整的相关消息,目前首套房贷利率仍保持现有水平,后续四月份如何调整,还要等统一通知。

购房者对此反应则较为保守,有网友在社交平台上称“差的是那点利息吗?”“中介已经开始催我买房了”“下调后更不想买了”……之所以对该调整感到诧异,是因为石家庄房价连涨,和网友现实体感并不相符,市场并未达到过热区间。

据克而瑞环京楼市统计,石家庄2月市场供求量环比下降,当月进入春节假期,多个项目沿用新春购房优惠活动,但因到访量下滑,成交量也随之下滑,节后市场小幅升温。二手房受春节假期影响成交量下滑,客户观望情绪较重,市场价格仍处于下行趋势。

而新房价格之所以上涨,与高端改善型项目的拉动有关。据中指研究院统计,石家庄商品住宅1月均价15442元/平方米,其中120~160平方米的商品住宅成交量占整体成交量的比例最高,达45.56%。在网友看来,属于“结构性上涨”。

“石家庄房地产市场呈现两极分化的局面,刚需持续走低,高端改善强者恒强,尤其是强地段+强产品。”克而瑞称,2023年来当地多个高端改善型项目陆续入市,如中海某项目入市价格超30000元/平方米、绿城某项目入市价格25000元/平方米以上,市场竞争激烈。一方面改善属性产品密集入市,另一方面市场供应增加,刚性需求观望情绪严重。

从全国层面看,当下房贷利率下降是主流趋势。据贝壳研究院统计,2月百城首套主流房贷利率平均为3.59%、二套主流房贷利率平均为4.16%,均已降至2014年以来房贷利率最低水平;银行平均放款周期为18天,为2019年以来最快放款速度。

具体而言,目前除北京城六区外,全部50个城市首套房贷利率均降至4%以下;珠海、中山贷款利率最低,已经降至3.35%。另外,50城中32个城市首套房贷利率已经突破下限3.75%(LPR-20BP),较1月增加1个。

二套房方面,仅8个城市高于4.15%(LPR+20BP),分别为北京、成都、南京、苏州、无锡、广州、深圳、福州,其中,除北京二套主流房贷利率为4.5%,其余7个城市为4.25%。

易居研究院表示,全国所有城市房贷利率几乎进入到4.0%以下的水平,房贷利率最低的城市,甚至可以做到3.45%,部分城市尤其是中小城市房贷利率低于3.5%的可能性会非常大。此外,房贷利率正不断接近公积金贷款利率。

综合来看,如果石家庄首套房商贷利率下限调整为3.75%,仍处于“低于4.0%”区间,但较百城房贷利率平均水平3.59%略高,二套房贷利率则仍是4.15%。

陈文静告诉第一财经,根据国家统计局数据,上海、西安、石家庄2023年12月~2024年2月新房价格均连续三个月同环比上涨,符合首套房贷利率恢复条件。当前,西安首套房贷利率下限为3.75%(LPR-20BP),上海为3.85%(LPR-10BP),在4月均无须调整。

“短期来看,后续符合条件的城市将继续按照房贷利率政策动态调整机制调整房贷利率,而房贷利率较高的城市(高于利率下限的城市),未来也存在进一步下调房贷利率的空间和预期,以降低购房者置业成本,促进住房需求释放。”陈文静表示。

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